NBA Betting Guide for Friday 3/17/23: What History Says About the Sky-High Total for Hawks vs. Warriors

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there’s just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night — spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where can we identify value in tonight’s NBA odds?

(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)

Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets

Charlotte Hornets +10.5 (-110)

Despite a pretty big slate, we’ve seen better betting boards. A lot of questionable tags for key players linger, and we’re really getting into the motivation vortex of the NBA season.

While the Hornets cling to the thinnest shred of mathematical playoff hopes, they’re effectively donezo.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia 76ers are surging and are 8-3 since the All-Star break with a +9.4 opponent-adjusted net rating, best in the NBA in that span according to my numbers. Their adjusted point differential is +8.6.

The Hornets, since the break, are a respectable 5-6 with an adjusted net rating of +1.6 and a 54.5% cover rate. They’re getting there mostly because of their defense. They’ve kept opponents under their implied team total by an average of 8.8 points.

With Charlotte’s ability to ugly up games lately and with each team’s relevant data, they should be able to keep it within double-digits and cover at home.

Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland Cavaliers Moneyline (-230)
A Lean on: Cleveland Cavaliers -6.0 (-110)

The Cavaliers are the top team in the NBA, according to numberFire’s power rankings, and they’re hosting the Washington Wizards, who are a viable 14th on our list.

Since the break, Cleveland is only 6-5 despite a point differential of +3.5. That equates to an opponent-adjusted rating of +6.5, though, and an adjusted net rating of +7.5.

The Wizards have a 4-7 post-break record and hold an adjusted net rating of -3.0 in that span.

My model thinks the spread should be Cavs by 7.3, and numberFire views Cleveland to be 59.1% likely to cover.

The better play is the moneyline (-230), but for those wanting better odds, Cavaliers -6.0 is in play, as well.

Golden State Warriors at Atlanta Hawks

Under 247.5 (-110)

Will this be a fun bet to track? No, it’ll be pretty nerve-wracking. Does the data say that the under is the right play? It does. Here’s why.

The Golden State Warriors should have Stephen Curry for this matchup, and while that’s an obvious boost to their offensive output, 247.5 is a huge number.

Historically speaking, we don’t have many recent comparisons to this game, but since 2016, games with a total of at least 240.0 have a 56.8% under rate. Bumping that up to 245 or more points, that under rate is 63.2%.

But does the current, rotation-based data project for an under? Yes.

My model anticipates points between the Atlanta Hawks and Warriors — but “only” 242.4.

numberFire’s algorithm says this game is 57.4% likely to stay under, as well. That’s good for an expected return on investment of 9.5%.

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