Felix Auger-Aliassime Title Winning Odds at the Qatar Open

Photo Credit: si.robi

With Roger Federer all but retired and Rafa Nadal fading a bit on all but clay, Novak Djokovic remains the last of the big three still routinely dominating when he gets on the court.

It has opened up a new era of rising tennis stars and Felix Auger-Aliassime is one of the most interesting up-and-coming players. The Montreal native currently sits ninth in the ATP rankings, with a high of sixth last fall. That is the second-highest level a Canadian player has reached.

Auger-Aliassime is currently the second seed in the Qatar ExxonMobil Open, an ATP 250-level tournament on the hard courts in Doha. He took his first match 4-6, 6-1, 6-4 over Australian Jason Kubler and then defeated the seventh-seeded Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the quarters.

He now faces the third-seeded Daniil Medvedev in the semis.

Despite his second seed, Auger-Aliassime was not a favorite to get to the finals as they headed into the quarters, he may not be the optimal choice to place a wager but for fans and newcomers, there is the choice to use the WynnBET Promo Code. Depending on the state, bet $20 or $100 and get $100 in bet credits, he’s getting better and has a solid appearance on the odds boards

  • Danil Medvedev -300
  • Andrey Rubilev +140
  • Jiri Lehecka +210
  • Felix Auger-Aliassime +510

Lehecka knocked out Rublev in the quarters, so Auger-Aliassime is now the top remaining seed.

Auger-Aliassime has gotten off to a nice start in 2023. He reached the round of 16 in Australia, where he fell to Lehecka 4-6 6-3 7-6(2) 7-6(3) then got to the quarters in Rotterdam and fell to eventual tournament winner Medvedev 6-2, 6-4.

Grass is statistically his best surface in a small sample size of just 33 career matches, while the clay is his favorite, but he plays very well on hard courts. Auger-Aliassime has won 69% of his service points on hard courts in the past year, 8th best on the tour and his 16% Ace% ranks fifth.

When he gets his first serve in he won 79.5% of the points, also fifth best. On the flip side, his return game could be more advanced. He won 36.1% of his return points, good for 31st best on hard courts over the past 52 weeks, resulting in a 32nd best 20.1% service break percentage.

Put it all together and he has a hard court Dominance Ratio (service points won divided by return points lost) of 1.17, good for seventh best. He’s won four titles in his career, all on hard courts and all in 2022.

Three of them were in consecutive weeks in a torrid October stretch when he took crowns in Florence, Antwerp, and Basel. He finished the year leading Canada to their first-ever Davis Cup finals, where they beat Australia to take the crown.

If Auger-Aliassime gets to the semis in Doha, Medvedev poses a huge roadblock. The Russian just won vs a tough field at Rotterdam and also made it to the finals at Adelaide earlier in the year before losing to Djokovic.

The 2021 US Open champ ranked number 1 in the world a year ago, though has slipped to eighth. Medvedev thrives on hard courts, winning 74% of the time in his career.

In the past year, he has won 54.1% of his total points and put up a DR of 1.27, both second to Djokovic. He does it a bit differently than Auger-Aliassime as he has won 41.8% of his return points with a 31.8% Break percentage, both best on the tour on hard courts in the past 52 weeks. Medvedev is no slouch with the service, with an 11.7% Ace% and 86.2% Hold%.

Auger-Aliassime and Medvedev have played five times, all on hard courts. Medvedev has won each time.

In fifteen total sets, Auger-Aliassime has taken just two. Medvedev totally dominated their recent match in Rotterdam as Auger-Aliassime’s service game was off. with just half his first serves in, 1.9% aces and a 5.6% double fault rate. Medvedev took four breaks in seven opportunities and cruised to victory.

The winner of a potential Medvedev-Auger-Aliassime match will face an underdog in the finals. Rublev and #4 seed Alexander Zverev are both out. The 52nd-ranked Lehecka is one semi-finalist, the other is Andy Murray.

Lehecka did just beat Auger-Aliassime in Australia and has played well lately, though longer-term his track record is middling. He’s won just half his points on hard courts in the last year with a .98 DR.

Looking ahead to 2023, Auger-Aliassime does say clay is his favorite surface to play in, but it is his worst as far as results go. He has yet to advance past the Round of 16 at the French Open, winning just four of eight total matches.

In his career, he has taken 31 of 59 matches with just a 50.5% TPW%. Like plenty of big servers, he gets a bit neutralized with a 7.6% Ace%, though that improved to 8.6% in the past year. His 52-week DR of 1.09 on clay is good but not elite.

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