College Basketball Betting Picks for Monday 12/4/23

The college basketball season always provides a flurry of twists and turns that few saw coming — especially when March Madness comes around. This can make college basketball one of the most challenging sports to bet on.

Fortunately, we have plenty of tools available that can aid our chances of taking the most favorable college basketball bets. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.

Let’s check out FanDuel Sportsbook’s college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

College Basketball Best Bets

Furman Paladins at Arkansas Razorbacks

Arkansas -11.5 (-110)

Arkansas basketball has been a bit of a bumpy ride thus far. After entering the season as one of the best picks to win the SEC, the Razorbacks have dropped to +1000 to win the conference when looking at FanDuel’s college basketball lines.

Several surprise losses, including the 78-72 final against UNC Greensboro, have led to the fall of Arkansas. However, the 80-75 win over then-No. 7 Duke on November 29 could be a turning point for the Hogs. Arkansas held the Blue Devils to a 35.8% field goal percentage (FG%) while knocking down 9 of 22 three-point attempts (40.9%). Trevon Brazile (19 points; 11 rebounds) and Khalif Battle (21 points) were the stars of the show.

The Razorbacks get another home game tonight against Furman. Of course, the Paladins are a dangerous mid-major squad who a first-round game as a No. 13 seed in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. Furman remains a strong program, ranking 136th in KenPom while being in the 79th percentile of adjusted offensive efficiency.

While the Paladins are certainly a tough test, hence the 11.5-point spread, Arkansas’ defense could reign supreme. Furman has the sixth-best two-point percentage (out of 362 teams), but the Razorbacks have a sound interior defense holding opponents to 46.3% on two-pointers (75th percentile) while averaging 6.8 blocks per game (2nd-best). The Paladins also total 27.9 three-point attempts per game (93rd percentile). Arkansas gives up only 21.3 three-point attempts per game (61st percentile) and allowed only six three-point makes against Duke.

The free throw line could also be a key with the Razorbacks averaging 29.0 attempts per game (fourth) while Furman is in the bottom 58.0% of free throw attempts per game. The Paladins have a weak interior defense with opponents shooting 55.0% on two-pointers (bottom 18.0%). Arkansas relies on two-point attempts with only 20.8 three-point shots per game (bottom 61.0%).

This could be another big game for Brazile, who is averaging 11.1 PPG. The Razorbacks could also return their leading scorer Tramon Mark (18.4 PPG), who is questionable for tonight’s game.

Ultimately, Arkansas should have enough advantages in this one to cover the spread. I’m once again bought into the Razorbacks following their win over Duke.

Iowa Hawkeyes at No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers

Over 163.5 (-105)

Iowa and Purdue are scheduled to collide for an early Big Ten battle. The Boilermakers fell three spots in this week’s AP Top 25 Poll following their 92-88 loss against Northwestern on December 1. Following the 79-67 loss against Oklahoma on November 23, the Hawkeyes have found their footing with back-to-back wins.

Neither team could be a safe bet to cover the spread. Iowa is 3-4 against the spread (ATS) this season while Purdue is 1-1-1 over their last three games. Betting on the total could be the best pick. The over is 5-2 and 6-2 for the Hawkeyes and Boilermakers; it has also hit in four consecutive Purdue contests.

These are two of the nation’s best offenses with Iowa touting the 15th-best adjusted offensive efficiency while the Boilermakers have the 4th-best mark in the category. The Hawkeyes are averaging 90.7 PPG (8th-best), and Purdue has totaled 84.6 PPG (92nd percentile). Both squads are also among the top 16% for the quickest paces in college basketball.

The Boilermakers have remained deadly from the beyond the arc at 40.9% (sixth-best). Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes give up 25.4 three-point attempts per game (bottom 15.0%). Lance Jones and Fletcher Loyer, who lead Purdue in three-point attempts, could be poised for big games.

Zach Edey (23.5 PPG) could also be a problem for Iowa; the reigning National Player of the Year still has the nation’s top mark in EvanMiya‘s Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR) at 9.84. The Hawkeyes have the worst Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR) in the Big Ten at 1.8.

On the other side of the court, the Boilermakers give up 27.0 three-point attempts per game (bottom 8.0%) while Iowa shoots 35.6% from deep (71st percentile). The Hawkeyes also feature an interesting lineup that is nearly positionless with 6-foot-9 Ben Krikke (18.7 PPG), 6-foot-9 Patrick McCaffery (12.0 PPG), and 6-foot-7 Payton Sandfort (14.3 PPG). Guarding the small forward position could particularly be a problem for Purdue, who feature a lineup with three guards at 6-foot-4 or shorter (Jones, Loyer, and Braden Smith).

Both teams have clear advantages in this one. Edey looks to be a nightmare matchup for the Hawkeyes, and the Boilermakers’ defense could struggle with Iowa’s lengthy lineup. This could look like a track meet with plenty of points, leading to the over.

Looking for more college basketball betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the upcoming college basketball odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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