Player props can be useful in a variety of ways — from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we’re going to focus on the former.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
NBA Prop Bets
On the season, Mobley is averaging 26.2 combined points and rebounds (PR). He has exceeded 23.5 PR in 75.0% of his games this campaign (21 of 28), which is well above the implied 52.6% probability on this prop via the -111 odds. It’s worth noting that this season’s sample includes a few injury-based minute-restricted contests, meaning a fully healthy Mobley is clearing today’s PR line at an even higher clip.
Mobley has played in five February contests. He has cleared 23.5 PR in all five of these games, averaging a towering 29.4 PR in this span.
It seems erroneous that his PR line is set this low, especially given tonight’s matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Sixers have been surrendering the third-most rebounds per game to power forwards this season. They’ve also been giving up the 12th-most paint points, which is where Mobley scores 76.7% of his points.
Add in that Joel Embiid (knee) is out for Philadelphia, and it looks like Mobley could have his way tonight. The Sixers have struggled since Embiid has been out, sporting the league’s third-worst defensive rating in that time, and a weak interior defense could constitute a huge game for Mobley.
In one matchup against the 76ers earlier this season, Mobley clocked out with 30 PR (27 PR in regulation). I’m quite bullish on another big performance from him.
Let’s stay with the same game and target a Philadelphia player to make an impact on the stat sheet.
Hield has been averaging 21.5 points (20 and 23 points) in 38.0 minutes per night for the Sixers thus far.
It’s a small sample, but his shot volume has been awesome (18.5 field goal attempts per game). With Embiid, De’Anthony Melton, and Nicolas Batum all still out, I have a hard time imagining that Hield’s shot volume or minutes will take a noticeable hit today. Simply put, Philadelphia’s depth chart is too lacking for Hield to not play a big role tonight.
The Cavs are not an easy matchup. They are rocking with the league’s second-best defensive rating and are surrendering the second-fewest points per game. But while I can’t speak highly of this matchup, it seems more likely than not that Tyrese Maxey will draw the most defensive attention from Cleveland’s backcourt, particularly from Donovan Mitchell.
Philly’s 110.5-point implied total is quite modest in this day and age, but Maxey and Tobias Harris can shoulder only so much of the team’s offensive workload. I think Hield will continue to get good looks and opportunities on this iteration of the 76ers’ lineup.
In this seven-game span, Hart is averaging 10.7 rebounds per game and has recorded at least 10 boards in each contest.
We’ve yet to see Hart fail to grab 10 rebounds, let alone over 8.5 rebounds, in games without both Randle and Anunoby, so I have a hard time fading him tonight.
He has also secured over 8.5 boards in 10 of his 13 games as a starter this season. Factor in a matchup against the Houston Rockets, and the rebounding opportunities seem endless.
Houston has been surrendering the fifth-most rebounds to shooting guards this season. In their last 30 games, they’ve been giving up the third-most boards per night to this position.
Hart, meanwhile, has been seeing 16.1 rebound chances per game with Randle and Anunoby out.
The Rockets and Hart have gone up against each other on one occasion this year. Despite coming off the bench — as Randle was in the lineup for New York — Hart still managed to reel in a whopping 14 rebounds. I’ll happily side with a rebounding heat check from Hart.
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