This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Quarterfinal play from the BNP Paribas Open continues Thursday with two men’s matches and two women’s matches. A reigning Indian Wells champion could be in trouble here, but it’s not the one most people think, while a favorite is likely to reverse some poor head-to-head history against their opponent Thursday. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks, as well as specific bonuses for users located in Massachusetts, where online sports betting has officially gone live.
All matches at the BNP Paribas Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players’ previous hard court results, form thus far at Indian Wells and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Indian Wells Picks: Upset Alert
Sorana Cirstea (+850) vs. Iga Swiatek
Cirstea is the better value in this matchup at her extremely long odds. She didn’t drop a set through three matches, then knocked off No. 5 seed Caroline Garcia 7-5 in the third, showing that she can come through in the clutch. Swiatek has been an excellent frontrunner but has struggled when she falls behind this season, going 15-0 when she wins the first set and 0-3 when she loses it. The big-hitting Cirstea has the skill set necessary to push Swiatek off the baseline and rob her of time, which are the keys to beating the heavily favored Pole. Cirstea won the first set in their only previous meeting, which Swiatek wound up winning 5-7, 6-3, 6-3 at last year’s Australian Open.
Karolina Muchova (+190) vs. Elena Rybakina
Indian Wells Odds: Lock It In
Carlos Alcaraz (-340) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime
Alcaraz is already giving Novak Djokovic a run for his money as the player to beat when healthy, and Auger-Aliassime hasn’t been playing anywhere near their level in 2023. FAA will gain some confidence from saving six match points before pulling out a third-set tiebreak over Tommy Paul, but that’s his only top-20 win this year against two straight sets losses. Dating back to last year, Auger-Aliassime is 2-5 against top-20 opponents since he beat Alcaraz indoors in Basel. Alcaraz will be motivated to turn around his 0-3 head-to-head against Auger-Aliassime, and the court conditions here should allow the Spaniard to do so. Two of the losses have come indoors and the other was via retirement, while the slower outdoor hard courts here should allow Alcaraz to neutralize Auger-Aliassime’s power better while pressing his advantages in footwork, feel and point construction.
Indian Wells Predictions: Value Bets
Taylor Fritz (+105) vs. Jannik Sinner
In other sports like basketball or football, when two evenly matched teams face off, the advantage usually goes to whichever team is at home. Similar logic can be applied here, as Sinner and Fritz don’t have much daylight between them on paper. Fritz currently has an eight-spot edge in the rankings at No. 5, but their results have been similar in 2023, with Fritz boasting a 17-4 record and Sinner at 15-3. Sinner hasn’t dropped a set nor faced a seeded opponent here, while Fritz has been on cruise control after being pushed to 6-3 in the third by talented compatriot Ben Shelton in his first match. The differentiator between these two is their comfort at this specific venue. Fritz grew up driving distance from Indian Wells in San Diego, and after playing numerous junior events here, he has had some of his best results here. Not only did Fritz win the Indian Wells title in 2022, but he also beat Sinner in straight sets here en route to the semifinals in 2021. That was the only previous meeting between these two.